Showing posts with label black swan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label black swan. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 1, 2020

Queen Corona

Hey! Who knew?
Somebody somewhere
must have been dreaming
this one up
for next blockbuster
disaster flick
while we were looking the other way
searching for needle in a haystack
next thing you know
we’re  caught in the middle
of hundred year flood
so to speak
though it started as a trickle,
but suddenly swirling whirling
wuhan never saw it hurling
its way through hubei
exotic epidemic
starting, like, quite anemic
but before you know it
mutating to pandemic
mutilating expectations
it was one in a million
i’m tellin’ ya!
straw that broke camel’s back
the damn thing—
a wild card
that brought down our worldwide
house of cards
flinging shards of dollar hordes—
so steadily deadly
everywhere it went
strickening  our system’s
wheelin’ dealin’
achilles heel
nobody saw it coming
GoldRepair

black swan swimming
in the dead of night
just aint right
left without a clue
who knew?
the next big thing
going viral
would be some very vague
plague
nobody ever heard of
who’d’ve thought it
the queen of quite a
lot of unlikely
events
crown it queen
of destruction:
coronavirus.
Even with 2020 vision we never saw it coming.
Blindsided we were.
Actually,
I noticed one person did
see it coming: Chris Martenson.
But don’t blame the messenger.
Don’t blame anybody. Just
Do unto others
as you would have them
do unto you.
Selah.

Glass half-Full

Saturday, March 21, 2020

The SwanSwoon of our Era

In her recent article at Social Europe Indian economist Jayeti Ghosh  accurately identifies a major consequence of our worldwide collective anti-COVID restrictions:
  “Supply chains are being disrupted, factories are being closed, entire regions are being locked down and a growing number of workers are struggling to secure their livelihoods. “ 
  https://www.socialeurope.eu/the-covid-19-debt-deluge

Her statement does indeed identify the crux of our economic problem right now, and the global complexity does unleash trouble on a very large, international scale.
You might say this COVID-crash is the “Crash of ’29” of our era.
Some compare this tsunami to the crash of ’08, or the blah-blah of ’87 (whatever that was.)  But it seems to me this thing is unwinding as an event historically more far-reaching than those two economic downfalls. This Covid thing can be compared to  what happened in 1929.
The Crash of ’29 exposed the vulnerability of a newly-Industrialized USA. This present Covid-crash exposes the vulnerability of a newly-Internetted World.
Ms. Ghosh is correct in her observation when she writes:
  “Today’s financial fragility far predates the Covid-19 ‘black swan’."
The black swan represents the unlikely possibility that something like this could happen . . . even though it did.

It seems to me the immensity of our present global Covid co-morbidity is indeed directly related to our newfound world connectivity in trade, travel and talk. The black swan in the background represents this unprecedented development in world history.

Swans

In that same technocratic network to which Ms. Ghosh contributes, Social Europe, Karin Pettersson posts her insightful analysis of our Covid conundrum, which includes this accurate assessment:
   “Already however, we know this: this type of disease cannot be efficiently fought at an individual level, but only as a society. It requires preparation, co-ordination, planning and the ability to make rapid decisions and scale up efforts. A strong state.
But nor is government enough. The situation demands personal responsibility, a sense of duty, concern for one’s neighbour. “ 
     https://www.socialeurope.eu/the-corona-crisis-will-define-our-era

What she writes there is so true. I agree.
 Karin goes on to pose  a question that is surely the crux of the problem for millions of earth-inhabiting workers:
   “Yet what will you do if you simply cannot afford to stay at home?”
And I’m thinking . . . because of this widespread affordability problem, the response of governments and corporations in the days ahead should reflect benevolence, not authoritarian oppression. At least I hope it will.
Karin Pettersson also presents this profound thought: 
   “I wonder if young people might come to think that authoritarian China dealt with the crisis better than the US—the land of the free.”
We shall witness, in the days ahead, how this dilemma is dealt with between China, USA, and all the other nations of this planet.

Karin’s bright insight becomes dimmed, however, when she criticizes, in the same article cited above, Vice President Mike Pence’s public act of leading scientists in prayer.
She is displeased that Pence, a former Indiana governor, had cut funding for HIV-virus research and prevention, back in the day. . .

I can understand Ms. Petterssen’s emphatic let’s fix this humanism. It is quite the de rigeur among technocrat intelligencia who would like to run the world, because they could certainly do a more equitable and better job than all those corporate 1%ers whose rabid profit-taking shenanigans have now made such a mess of things.
 Yes, Virginia, the news is bad. Read 'em and weep. . . but act, benevolently. That also  goes for all you 1%ers out there who think you're in charge of things.
But I also like to remember, and take seriously, a statement that I heard, many years ago, from a fellow who was then what I now am, an ole geezer.
  “What we need now is some damn prayer!”
So Let’s all work together harmoniously to get these problems solved. And remember that a little help from the OneWhoIs could only render our burdens a little easier to bear.

Glass half-Full

Saturday, August 9, 2014

Black Swan

Forty minutes into this podcast . . .

http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/86441/david-stockman-collapse-american-imperium?

David Stockman's explanation to Chris Martenson about the Ukraine problem suddenly morphed into a dialogue about the present state of our financial markets.

I was so edified by what the former Director of Office of Management and Budget was saying, that I sat down on this Saturday afternoon and wrote a poem about it-- pretty unusual subject for a poem, for sure, nevertheless . . . we live in strange times. . .



We were out on the market that dark day when

the black swan came

and the dam

broke.

Fast money had driven us to the point

of no return but then we

were sliding on a

torrent.

Someone said the central banks had ruined the

markets, and stabilizing factors

were gone with the

wind.

Two-sided trades had gone the way of the buffalo

because a big animal spirit like that has

no place in the high-freq

flood.

There we were hanging at the end of the long swan's road

with no ballast in our boat and no bids

to stop us on the way

down,

short sellers driven over the falls by cascading

price plummets and overvalued shares

tumbling in bubblous

froth,

we were lucky to emerge upright after that, after the Fed had

monetized three and half trillion gallons

of rushing flushing

liquid,

and then the dam went bust, banks caving, no saving,

until we tumulted through that broken Wall

and found our little boat

afloat.

Astounded, broke, busted, rudder can't be trusted,

we drifted to portage on the flooded Main.

T'was there we saw black swan fly

away.

It had long tails, and we saw red sails in the

sunset.



Glass half-Full